AESE insight #32
[av_layerslider id='1699'] [av_layerslider id='1697'] [av_section min_height='' min_height_px='95px' padding='no-padding' shadow='no-border-styling' bottom_border='no-border-styling' bottom_border_diagonal_color='#333333' bottom_border_diagonal_direction='' bottom_border_style='' scroll_down='aviaTBscroll_down' custom_arrow_bg='#f37421' id='' color='main_color' custom_bg='#ffffff' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' attach='scroll' position='top left' repeat='no-repeat' video='' video_ratio='16:9' overlay_opacity='0.5' overlay_color='' overlay_pattern='' overlay_custom_pattern='' av_element_hidden_in_editor='0'][/av_section] [av_one_full first min_height='' vertical_alignment='' space='' custom_margin='' margin='0px' padding='0px' border='' border_color='' radius='0px' background_color='' src='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_heading heading='Global Energy Perspective 2021, Francisco Vieira ' tag='h1' style='blockquote modern-quote' size='48' subheading_active='subheading_above' subheading_size='12' padding='15' color='custom-color-heading' custom_font='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] AESE insight #32 > Thinking ahead [/av_heading] [/av_one_full] [av_section min_height='' min_height_px='500px' padding='default' shadow='no-shadow' bottom_border='no-border-styling' bottom_border_diagonal_color='#333333' bottom_border_diagonal_direction='scroll' bottom_border_style='scroll' scroll_down='' custom_arrow_bg='' id='' color='main_color' custom_bg='' src='' attach='scroll' position='top left' repeat='no-repeat' video='' video_ratio='16:9' video_mobile_disabled='' overlay_enable='' overlay_opacity='0.5' overlay_color='' overlay_pattern='' overlay_custom_pattern='' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide='' av_element_hidden_in_editor='0'] [av_one_third first min_height='' vertical_alignment='' space='' custom_margin='' margin='0px' padding='0px' border='' border_color='' radius='0px' background_color='' src='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_image src='https://www.aese.pt/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Francisco-Vieira_AESEinsight_18FEV.jpg' attachment='73421' attachment_size='full' align='center' styling='' hover='' link='post,5594' target='_blank' caption='' font_size='' appearance='' overlay_opacity='0.4' overlay_color='#000000' overlay_text_color='#ffffff' animation='no-animation' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_image] [av_heading tag='h3' padding='10' heading=' Francisco Vieira' color='' style='blockquote modern-quote' custom_font='' size='' subheading_active='subheading_below' subheading_size='15' custom_class='' admin_preview_bg='' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size=''] Professor de Operações, Tecnologia e Inovação e Diretor do AMEG da AESE Business School. [/av_heading] [/av_one_third][av_two_third min_height='' vertical_alignment='' space='' custom_margin='' margin='0px' padding='0px' border='' border_color='' radius='0px' background_color='' src='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_textblock size='' font_color='' color='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] Já nos habituamos ao cliché: a pandemia e a crise económica e social que lhe estão associadas causaram uma alteração de panorama sem precedentes.O mundo recuperará os níveis pré-covid. Vamos ver em quanto tempo e a magnitude dos destroços.
O consumo de energia e o mix das suas diferentes fontes não são exceção. A McKinsey publicou recentemente o seu Base Case “Global Energy Perspective 2021”, que constitui um excelente contributo para a projeção de cenários já com a incorporação do efeito pandemia. Baseia-se, é certo, em pressupostos de estímulos públicos à reposição económica que terão um papel crucial no perfil das curvas de recuperação.
Prevê que o consumo de eletricidade e de gás volte aos níveis de 2019, o mais tardar até 2023, e o petróleo até 2024.
No longo prazo, os motores da transição energética permanecem os mesmos: a eletrificação da economia, a eficiência energética e a duplicação do peso das regiões Ásia-Pacífico e África no consumo global de energia.
Porém o COVID deixa marcas de alteração de comportamentos que certamente terão impacto no padrão de consumo, nomeadamente em transportes e combustíveis líquidos.
Confirma-se a tendência da gradual antecipação do pico de consumo global dos combustíveis fósseis, prevendo-se agora que o petróleo comece a decrescer em 2029, o Gás em 2037 e o carvão já numa trajetória descendente desde 2014.
As perspetivas não são, porém tão animadoras no que se refere aos níveis de emissões de gases com efeito de estufa. As previsões continuam muito aquém das metas do Acordo de Paris. 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